Course
OutlineDay 1
Models prior to testing for serial correlation
Regression, Trends, Seasonality review
How to build a good regression model
Residuals analysis
Trend analysis with sin and cos terms
Time Series Fundamentals
Types of Data, Objectives, Graphics
Stationarity
What is serial correlation? How to test for it?
Effects of autocorrelation on hypothesis tests
Effective sample size
Time series analysis
Nonparametric Tests of temporal correlation
Parametric Tests of temporal correlation
Autocorrelation function
ACF when some data are missing
Partial autocorrelation functions
Time series models
Autoregressive models
Moving average models
ARMA models
Model estimation
Diagnostic plots: ACFs and PACFs
Day 2
Forecasting
ARMA models for forecasting
Multivariate Time Series
Basic concepts
Cross Correlation Function
Computation & Significance of the CCF
Estimating a WQ variable from another, frequently measured variable
Problems with using regression for forecasts and record fill-in
Line of Organic Correlation vs classical linear regression
Individual estimates vs. forecasting a collection of data (percentiles)
Comparisons to standards and 1:1 lines
Bootstrap methods for time series